Thursday, March 11, 2010

January 26, 2010

Regression

Meanwhile, back at The Factory, the expansion continues and my mission is in motion. Extensive time travels have my clock out of whack. Life is so strange — Destination Unknown.

Conditions

S&P 500 - Weekly

S&P 500 - Weekly

Since the March 2009 bottom, we have seen an uptrend with little interruption. In light of some regression analysis, it is evident that we could go either way. This could be a time to buy the index, or it could be a time to sell it. Like a man on a high wire, falling down and being out of the game is not an option. But I must make it back to one side. Will it be the buy side or the sell side? In correlation, here are some data points that I ponder:

1) Dubai Credit default swaps have continued to trade wider, at levels not seen since November.

2) The Volatility Index (VIX) made a large move higher last week.

3) Volatility dispersion is at it’s highest level in months–indicating higher probability of a systemic problem and trouble with the entire structure of the market and it’s underpinnings. If the market is a sell, it will be best to short the market indexes as opposed to individual names.

4) Some individual names look as though they can move much, much higher from here. My re-positioning will depend on various factors that I will continue to monitor.

I am a trader
and Flexibility is
my reality.

And the beat goes on.

January 9, 2010

Market Rap 08.JAN.10

Stock market futures initially sold off on the payroll and unemployment headlines this morning at 5:30 AM PST. They spent the day recovering, and ended up rallying to the highs of yesterday.

S&P 500 Futures - 15 Minute

S&P 500 Futures - 15 Minute

The Dollar sold off, squeezed the shorts, then fell to the lows of yesterday.

$USD Futures - 15 Minute

$USD Futures - 15 Minute

Gold rallied, pulled back to it’s logical limit, then rallied to near yesterday’s highs.

Spot Gold - 15 Minute

Spot Gold - 15 Minute

And the beat goes on.

More on this topic (What's this?)
Bloomberg Gold Buy Signal
The Best Ways to Invest in Gold
Read more on Gold, Unemployment (U.S.) at Wikinvest

January 2, 2010

Volatility Radio - Changes

Loneliness has followed me my whole life. Everywhere. In bars, in cars, sidewalks, stores, everywhere. There’s no escape. I’m God’s lonely man… June 8th. My life has taken another turn again. The days can go on with regularity over and over, one day indistinguishable from the next. A long continuous chain. Then suddenly,
there is a change.
-Travis Bickle

January 1, 2010

Haiku: Paris to the West Coast

On The Errol Flynn
I fly sky high. Too fast to
live. Too young to die.